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Fx forecasts 2018 pdf
from mid- 2018, followed by an ending of nirp and additional hikes in 10y. At the tail end of a year where the US Dollar index dropped by a double-digit percentage, the. For the week ended August 28, 2018, there were.2K net-short contracts held, a slight increase from the.8K contracts held in the week prior. EUR/USD again, just like at the start of August. If the calendar does produce any action, it will likely be around either the July Eurozone Retail Sales report due on Wednesday or the final Q218 Eurozone GDP release on Friday (which is the third iteration of the report, so it should have a muted.
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Fx forecasts 2018 pdf
According to the cftcs COT report released on Friday, speculators held net-short positions in the Euro for the first three-week period going back to April 2017. Euro, the Italian election will likely result in a higher risk premium for the EUR in the near term, but we see the Politics of Rage more as a medium-term risk for the euro area. US Dollar, the package of modest tax cuts, which appears much more likely, may present some upside risks to our range-bound USD forecast into Q1 18, but we believe it is unlikely to challenge the highs seen at the beginning of 2017 or change the. Fundamental Forecast for EUR/USD: Neutral - The Brexit negotiations remain a potent catalyst, evidenced by the sharp turnaround. Bank of Japan tweaks its "yield curve control" program in response. Starting in Q2 18, we expect EUR appreciation to renew on the back of an announcement around sequencing of ECB tightening. Japanese Yen, over the course of 2018, we expect a gradual decline in usdjpy after a range-trade into. According to the Bank of International Settlements, Turkish borrowers owe European lenders 194 billion, much of which is unhedged.